5th July: Comex futures report

Insignia Consultants

New Delhi

Tuesday, July 05, 2016

TIME 8:15 AM IST                        

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COMEX FUTURES REPORT

There can be profit booking before the US jobs numbers on Thursday and Friday. Nothing extra ordinary has happened over the weekend. No new political developments or surprises can be an excuse for gold and silver to see a correction. The next ten trading sessions is very crucial for gold and silver. They need to break and trade over $1360 and $2152 for another five percent rise before end July. Momentum is bullish for gold and silver. But I will prefer to cautious optimism in gold. However I will still prefer to use sharp declines to invest in silver. Silver is still undervalued as compared to its precious metals counterparts.

 

This is the first time that the world has experienced Islamic terror strikes in the holy month of Ramadan. Generally the world peace is at its highest in Ramadan. Safe haven demand whether for the US dollar or precious metals will be there. There should now be a big jump in physical gold and silver demand all over Asia and Europe. Tiny gold and silver retail demand should far outstrip HNI (high networth individuals) demand. Gold and silver discounts should move into premium as the month progresses.

 

Trade very carefully. Movement will be two way. Buy market and sell market. All trailing stop losses (big or small) have a higher hit probability for now. Do not panic. If you do not want to take big risk, then invest in physical gold and silver and not in futures. I have never made a call to invest in gold/silver ETF and I continue to maintain the same.

 

TECHNICAL SUPPORT/RESISTANCES

COMEX GOLD AUGUST 2016 TECHNICAL LEVELS -- pivot $1337.60 & $1359.80

.

RESISTANCE

S1

S2

S3

S4

R1

R2

R3

R4

$1,321.00

$1,332.00

$1,337.80

$1,341.00

$1,359.80

$1,370.90

$1,379.20

$1,395.40

SILVER SEPTEMBER 2016 TECHNICAL LEVELS  -- pivot $1940 & $2078

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

S1

S2

S3

S4

R1

R2

R3

R4

$1,815.00

$1,876.00

$1,940.00

$1,979.00

$2,014.00

$2,049.00

$2,105.00

$2,198.00

COPPER SEPTEMBER 2016 TECHNICAL LEVELS  -- pivot $219.60

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

S1

S2

S3

S4

R1

R2

R3

R4

$211.10

$213.70

$216.80

$219.10

$222.20

$224.90

$227.60

$230.90

CRUDE OIL (1st Contract) -- pivot $48.40

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

S1

S2

S3

S4

R1

R2

R3

R4

$45.10

$45.80

$46.30

$47.40

$49.40

$49.90

$51.05

$52.30

All prices are in US dollar ($) above. Only for reference

 

COMEX AUGUST 2016 – current price $1347.00

Bullish over $1360.60 with $1371.90-$1395.40 as price target

Bearish below $1347.10 with $1337-$1327 and $1307.80 as price target.

Neutral Zone between $1347.10 and $1360.60

Jobbers aggressive buy over: buy at $1321 stop loss $1307 for $1395 or buy over $1361 stop loss $1354 for $1371 and $1395

Jobbers sell below: Sell at $1396 stop loss $145714 for $1311 or sell in case gold does not break $1361 today.

·        Gold needs to fall below $1321 or break and trade over $1361 for direction.

·        Initial support is at $1337 with $1321 as the key support.

·        A daily over $1350 today will be very bullish for tomorrow.

COMEX SILVER SEPTEMBER 2016 – current price $1999.00

Bullish over $2014 with $2078-$2127 and $2244 as price target

Bearish below $1969 with $1940 & $1835 as price target

Neutral Zone between: $1969 and $2014

Jobbers aggressive buy over: Buy at $1860 stop loss $1779 for $2147 or buy over $2014 stop loss $1989 for $2078

Jobbers sell below: Aggressively Sell if silver does not break $2144 either or till Thursday.

·        Silver needs to trade over $2014 till Friday for another wave of rise.

·        In case silver does not break $2014 by Friday, then chances of a fall back to $1835 and $1769 will be high. I am not trying to scare you. But we need to prepare ourselves for big one way moves in silver.

·        Initial support is at $1969 with $1930 as key intraday support.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT)  - current price $48.39

Bullish over $47.40 with $50.70 and $52.10 as price target

Bearish below $45.90 with $44.90 and $42.30 as price target

Jobbers buy over: Buy at $47.00 stop loss $42.40 for $53.30 – call for next week.

Jobbers sell below: Sell at $52.20 stop loss $54.10 for $47.70

·        Crude oil needs to trade over $48.00 today to rise to $50.70

·        There will be sellers only below $48.00 today.

·        One should use sharp dips to buy with a stop loss below $45.00 for tomorrow.

COMEX COPPER SEPTEMBER 2016 – current price $219.80

Bullish over $219.00 with $229.10 and $233.60 as price target

Bearish below $216.40 with $212.90 and $209.90 as price target

Neutral Zone between: $216.40 and $219

·        Copper needs to trade over $219 till tomorrow to rise to $224 and $231

·        There will be sellers only if copper trades below $219 to $216.90 and $213.

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees  have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT

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UK session starts around 2:30 pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT) -- after the release of LME daily inventories

US session starts at 7pm pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT)

PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS

PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.

THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT

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