4th July: Comex futures report

Insignia Consultants

New Delhi

Monday, July 04, 2016

TIME 8:00 Am IST                        

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COMEX FUTURES REPORT

As July progresses, focus of the markets will switch from UK exit to ground realities. Central banks will be cautious in July. They will postpone key market moving decisions for some time. Do not expect surprises from central banks in July. Central bank will give direct or indirect intimation of their policy moves in July. This week we have the US June nonfarm payrolls. I do not see any big effect of UK exit on this number and this number should come over 200,000.

 

Earlier years trading volumes in gold and silver would fall in July and August. This year there should be a big jump in gold and silver trading volumes in these two months. Gold and silver need to trade over $1299 and $1779 in these two months to continue their bullish trend. There will be traders who are eager to start building short positions in gold and silver. If gold and silver rise in July and August, then I see them rising till January 2017. Sentiment dictates demand. If sentiment of gold and silver remain bullish in July and August then irrespective of prices, the common man irrespective of prices will flock to buy gold.

 

Apart from Middle East, the NATO alliance is focused on Pakistan and North Korea. They have ignored Bangladesh. Minorities are trying to flee Bangladesh. A tiny nation like Bangladesh could be a huge exporter of Islamic terror. Initiatives need to start to curb radicalization of Bangladeshi youth else not just India, East Asia could be at bigger risk.

 

TECHNICAL SUPPORT/RESISTANCES

COMEX GOLD AUGUST 2016 TECHNICAL LEVELS -- pivot $1359.80

.

RESISTANCE

S1

S2

S3

S4

R1

R2

R3

R4

$1,321.00

$1,332.00

$1,337.80

$1,347.00

$1,359.80

$1,370.90

$1,379.20

$1,395.40

SILVER SEPTEMBER 2016 TECHNICAL LEVELS  -- pivot 2078 & $2143.50

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

S1

S2

S3

S4

R1

R2

R3

R4

$1,876.00

$1,940.00

$2,014.00

$2,049.00

$2,105.00

$2,198.00

$2,272.70

$2,347.80

COPPER SEPTEMBER 2016 TECHNICAL LEVELS  -- pivot $2229.10

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

S1

S2

S3

S4

R1

R2

R3

R4

$215.20

$216.80

$218.90

$222.20

$229.30

$233.30

$237.60

$243.00

CRUDE OIL (1st Contract) -- pivot $49.10

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

S1

S2

S3

S4

R1

R2

R3

R4

$45.10

$45.80

$46.30

$47.40

$49.40

$49.90

$51.05

$52.30

All prices are in US dollar ($) above. Only for reference

 

COMEX AUGUST 2016 – current price $1353.50

Bullish over $1327.00 with $1359-$1395.40 as price target

Bearish below $1317.10 with $1307 and $1296 as price target.

Neutral Zone between $1317.10 and $1327.00

Jobbers aggressive buy over: buy at $1340 stop loss $1317 for $1395 or buy over $1359 stop loss  $1354 for $1371 and $1395

Jobbers sell below: Sell at $1434 stop loss $1457 for $1349

·        There wioll be a technical breakout over $1359 to $1395-$1403 zone

·        Initial support is at $1337 with $1321 as the key support.

·        A daily over $1359 today will be very bullish for tomorrow.

COMEX SILVER SEPTEMBER 2016 – current price $2076.0

Bullish over $2078 with $2199 and $2244 as price target

Bearish below $2014 with $1940 & $1835 as price target

Neutral Zone between: $2014 and $2078

Jobbers aggressive buy over: Buy at $1940 stop loss $1840 for $2249 or buy over $2100 stop loss $2066 for $2249

Jobbers sell below: No call

·        Key resistance is at $2100. Only a break of $2100 will trigger another wave of rise to $2187 and $2272

·        Initial support is at $1930 and as long as silver trades over $1930 downside risk will be limited.

NYMEX CRUDE OIL (1ST CONTRACT)  - current price $48.97

Bullish over $47.40 with $50.70 and $52.10 as price target

Bearish below $45.90 with $44.90 and $42.30 as price target

Jobbers buy over: Buy at $47.00 stop loss $42.40 for $53.30 – call for next week.

Jobbers sell below: Sell at $52.20 stop loss $54.10 for $47.70

·        Crude oil needs to trade over $47.00 today to rise to $52.20

·        Right now crude oil is in a bullish zone.

·        One should use sharp dips to buy with a stop loss below $45.00 for tomorrow.

COMEX COPPER SEPTEMBER 2016 – current price $224.00

Bullish over $219.00 with $229.10 and $233.60 as price target

Bearish below $216.40 with $212.90 and $209.90 as price target

Neutral Zone between: $216.40 and $219

·        Copper targets $229 and $237 as long as it trade over $219

·        A daily close over $224.00 today will be bullish with a price target of $243+

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees  have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

Disclosure: Insignia consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading strategies mentioned in the above report.

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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT

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UK session starts around 2:30 pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT) -- after the release of LME daily inventories

US session starts at 7pm pm Indian Standard Time (+5:30 GMT)

PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS

PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.

THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT

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