Sunday, August 2, 2020
NSE CURRENCY FUTURE AUGUST MONTHLY TECHNICAL REPORT – wear mask
In my view Reserve bank of India has been intervening to prevent the rupee from sharp gains. US dollar Index crashed in July. Yet the rupee is stable. RBI has done the right thing. There are market moving US economic data releases from 4th August to 10th August. Anything can happen.
US dollar Index is over brought. Momentum is still very bearish. One needs to trade very carefully till 10th August.
US DOLLAR-INDIAN RUPEE (USD/INR) – August 2020
Current Market Price: Rs.75.0000
- Initial support: Rs.74.7025
- Initial resistance: Rs.75.3000
- Key August support: Rs.74.2175
- Key August resistance: Rs.75.6325
- July high of 75.8175 is the key resistance.
- 74.0325-74.3675 is the key support for rupee against the US dollar in July.
- Crash or sell off will be there only if usd/inr august trades below 74.0325-74.3675 on or after 10th August to 73.7550 and 73.2525.
- As long as 74.0325-74.3675 zone is not breached, rupee will trade in 74.3675-74.7025-75.8175 zone.
- If Covid cases in India continues to rise each day of August then rupee will weaken to 76.2650 and more before 31st August.
EURO-INDIAN RUPEE (EURO/INR) August 2020
Current Market Price: Rs.88.6800
- Initial support: 87.4250
- Initial resistance: 89.9350
- August support: 86.6475
- August resistance: 90.7125
- July high of 89.2600 is the key resistance.
- Momentum and trend is very bullish for euro/usd and euro/inr.
- Euro/inr has to break and trade over 90.7125 for a few days to start another wave of rise to 91.9675-92.7400-94.0000.
- Crash or sell off will be there if (a) euro/inr does not break 90.7125 by 14th August to 86.6475 and 86.0200.
- Weekly traders can buy euro/inr on a break of July high of 89.2600 with strict trailing stop loss below 88.6800 for 90.7125.
- I will prefer to sell euro/inr around 93.7445 with a stop loss over 95.0355 for 86.6475 till future close on 27th August.
UK POUND-INDIAN RUPEE (GBP/INR) August 2020
Current Market Price: Rs.98.4450
- Initial support:97.1650
- Initial resistance: 99.7250
- August support: 95.7375
- August resistance: 101.1525
- July high of 98.5650 is the key resistance.
- There is a big resistance zone between 99.5075-99.7250.
- Gbp/inr August needs to break and trade over 99.5075-99.7250 zone to rise to 102.5050-103.9275 and 105.3675.
- Crash of sell off will be there if (a) Gbp/inr does not break 101.1550 by 11th August and/or (b) Gbp/inr trades below 97.1650 for a few days.
- Gbp/usd is the most bullish among the constituent of the US dollar Index. If Covid cases restart in UK summer in a big way and there is renewed lockdown in UK, the gbp/inr august will crash to 86.0200 and 84.6150. (I am serious).
- Right now momentum and technical suggest of a rise to 102.5050 and more.
- I prefer take a chance and sell between 102.5050-104.0000 with a stop loss over 105.9325 for expiry on 27th August. Stop losses need to be very high in cable.
- Weekly traders buy on a break of July high of 98.5650 strict stop loss of 97.1650 for 101.1550.
JAPANESE YEN-INDIAN RUPEE (JPY/INR) August 2020
Current Market Price: Rs.71.5075
- Initial support: 70.9025
- Initial resistance: 72.1150
- August support: 70.2225
- August resistance: 73.1100
- July high of 71.8825 is the key resistance.
- Yen/inr needs to trade over 70.9025 to rise to 72.4925 and 73.1100.
- Crash of sell off will be there if (a) Jpy/inr does not break 73.1100 in August and/or (b) Jpy/inr trades below 70.9000.
- I will prefer to sell between 74.0800-75.0625 zone with a stop loss over 76.6525 for 69.9175.
- Weekly traders can buy on a break of 71.8825 with strict trailing stop loss below 71.4175 for 72.4925.
Corona virus cases is moving from cities to India’s heartland. August to November are festival months. People are ignoring social distancing. I do not expect a full lockdown till November in India. Rupee can reach new all-time highs against the US dollar (by end October) if covid cases continues to rise for the rest of the quarter. US dollar crashed in July partly due to continued rise in covid cases. Indian rupee can follow the greenback as well in August or September.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, crypto currency, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani
NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
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All price above are in US dollars, unless otherwise specified.
Indian Standard Time (IST): +5:30 GMT
Current Market Price (CMP)
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.
THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT